Qualis Macroeconomic Round Up: 7 April 2026

Dramatic headlines have markets, and investors alike, nervous. But what are the real implications for portfolios, and what’s just noise? In this regular market update, we analyse the past fortnight and discern between the two.

The News

The second half of March saw the Middle East conflict continue, with continuous missile strikes throughout the region. A development, that alarmed markets, was when these began to target key energy facilities in the Gulf which combined with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz to further exacerbate energy prices. Rhetoric from both Washington D.C and Tehran added to concerns, with President Trump placing a deadline on Iran to yield which has further unnerved markets.

During this time, inflation held steady at 3% in the UK, however it’s important to note this is regarding February. There is often a lag in inflation data and we’ll have to wait a few weeks to see how March’s volatility comes through in the official numbers. Likewise, many will be interested to see the impact of this in US inflation once that data is released.

However, on 1 April, Prime Minister Keir Starmer took the step of addressing the nation to warn of the financial impacts of the Middle East conflict. He spoke to reassure the population about the UK’s economy but warned of a coming “storm” in terms of impacts to household finances.

Market Movements

Since 23 March, many of the world’s major equity markets have been knocked back as the Middle East conflict rumbled on but – on hopes the war would be resolved shortly – there have also been recent rises. The S&P 500 fell to 6,343 towards the end of March but has since recovered to stay steady around 6,600. The FTSE 100 experienced a similar fall over this period, but as of 7 April has rallied up to nearly 10,500.

We have also seen movement in bond yields. US 10 Year Treasuries rose initially from 4.35% on 23 March but then dipped and have yielded under 4.35% since the end of that month. Over this same period, a 10 Year Gilt went from yields of 4.92% to hold steady at 4.83% through April. This was largely driven by the impact on oil. The price of a barrel of crude oil, often seen as the benchmark for the world’s oil market, surpassed the $110 mark on 7 April. For context, this price had remained under the $70 mark for much of the past year until it began to rise in March. And the last time it reached this level was in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

How This Impacts Us

What’s happening in the Middle East has far-reaching impacts, raising energy prices which then knock on to concerns around inflation and growth. It’s very easy to be reactive when markets are falling, but it’s important to keep cool and look towards the long term.

As such, we’ve made no changes in the Growth Fund. In the Defensive Fund, we have increased exposure to a floating rate note Exchange Traded Fund we hold. This essentially invests in debt securities with variable interest rates, which reflect wider bond market movements. We did this because of growing fears around rate hikes in the market, but also to give us a great source of liquidity as and when the market turns. We’ve done this because we think others in the market are underestimating the economic effects of the oil price rise.

Looking Ahead

In times like these, it is important to remember how diversified we are with downside protection built into our funds. In terms of sentiment, it’s clear that markets will hinge on the oil price normalising and the Middle East conflict de-escalating. It’s hard to say how this will pan out with such a fast moving event.

However, we remain significantly diversified across regions and sectors, both protecting our investors on the downside while positioning ourselves to benefit from the upside when this appears.

Past performance is not a guide to future returns. The value of investments can fall as well as rise, and investors may not get back the amount invested.

Disclaimer –

This article does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the products described within. You should consult your financial adviser before making any decisions.

Please note that any performance figures are provided for information purposes only and are not to a guide to future returns. The performance of your own investments may deviate due to a number of factors, including product charges, the timing of contributions & withdrawals and portfolio rebalancing.

Important information –

As always with investments, your capital is at risk. The value of investments is not guaranteed and the income from them can fall as well as rise. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole consideration when selecting a product. The basis of taxation may also change from time to time. We have not considered the suitability of these investments against your individual objectives and risk tolerance. This article is intended for information purposes only.

The MGTS Qualis funds are operated by Margetts Fund Management Ltd (MGTS) the Authorised Corporate Director. GWA Asset Management Ltd (GWAAM) has been appointed as the Investment Manager, a wholly owned Greaves West & Ayre Group business. GWAAM is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct authority and is entered on the Financial Services Register https://register.fca.org.uk/ under FRN 960226

Margetts have full responsibility for the management and operation of the funds as the Authorised Corporate Director.

Margetts Fund Management Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority no. 208565. More information about MGTS can be found by visiting their website – MGTS (mgtsfunds.com).